PublicReceiptBeta

Santa Monica · Nov 3, 2026 · Research notes

Research notes

Housing and homelessness

The sources, figures, reasoning and method behind the policy area page. Draft as of 2026-10-02.

Sources

Numbers match the footnote markers on the policy area page.

  1. City of Santa Monica Homelessness Strategic Plan 2025–2030. City of Santa Monica, 2025-03-11.
  2. A Housing Focused System of Care, council presentation, item 11.B. City of Santa Monica, 2026-07-28.
  3. Authorization to enter into certain agreements and further direction related to a Housing Focused System of Care, staff report, item 11.B. City of Santa Monica, 2026-07-28.
  4. FY 2025-27 Adopted Biennial Budget, priority-focused performance metrics. City of Santa Monica, 2025-06-24.
  5. A community response approach to mental health and substance abuse crises reduced crime (Dee and Pyne). Science Advances, 2022-06.
  6. About the CARE Act (self-help guide). Judicial Branch of California, 2026-10.
  7. City Council minutes, July 28, 2026 (marked NOT APPROVED), items 11.B and 16.F. City of Santa Monica, 2026-07-28.
  8. Homelessness Strategic Plan and Renters' Protections Program, City Council report, item 11.A. City of Santa Monica, 2025-03-11.
  9. Award RFP #470 to The People Concern, Santa Monica Renter Aid Program, item 4.A. City of Santa Monica, 2026-05-26.
  10. Award contract with LA County Homeless Services and Housing Department for a Predictive Prevention Pilot, item 4.H. City of Santa Monica, 2026-06-09.
  11. 6th Cycle RHNA Progress Report (data.ca.gov), row SANTA MONICA. California Department of Housing and Community Development, 2026-09-25.
  12. Santa Monica Realignment Plan Update, City Council report, item 11.C. City of Santa Monica, 2026-03-24.
  13. Adopt the Final Draft of the Climate Action & Adaptation Plan, City Council report, item 11.B. City of Santa Monica, 2019-05-28.
  14. Introduction and First Reading of an Ordinance Adopting Building Performance Standards, City Council report, item 10.A. City of Santa Monica, 2025-09-09.
  15. City Council minutes, September 9, 2025 (item 10.A pulled at the request of staff). City of Santa Monica, 2025-09-09.
  16. Off-Site Affordable Housing Pilot Program ordinance, staff report, item 10.A. City of Santa Monica, 2026-01-13.
  17. City Council minutes, July 14, 2026 (charter measures on eviction protections). City of Santa Monica, 2026-07-14.

Every figure on the policy area page

FigureWhat it countsAs ofBasisSource
10% Strategic Plan performance measure: minimum year-over-year reduction in unsheltered homelessness. A target, not a result. 2025-03-11 city reported p. 10
718 People experiencing homelessness in Santa Monica (sheltered and unsheltered), preliminary 2026 Point-in-Time count. Preliminary, as presented July 28, 2026; the count night is not stated in the source. A one-night snapshot that cannot show program effects. 2026-07-28 city reported slide 2
812 People experiencing homelessness in Santa Monica, 2025 Point-in-Time count. As cited in the July 28, 2026 staff report from the City's July 2025 release. 2025-07 city reported p. 7 and note 3
150 Target: people experiencing homelessness placed in interim housing, FY 2025-26. A target; actual FY 2025-26 results not found. 2026-06 adopted budget printed p. 34
140 Estimated people placed in interim housing, FY 2024-25. Estimated actual at budget adoption. 2025-06 city reported printed p. 34
60 Target: people experiencing homelessness placed in permanent housing, FY 2025-26. A target; placement, not retention. 2026-06 adopted budget printed p. 34
55 Estimated people placed in permanent housing, FY 2024-25. Estimated actual at budget adoption. 2025-06 city reported printed p. 34
60 Congregate beds at SaMoShel, the City's shelter 2026-07-28 city reported p. 7
10% Share of SaMoShel beds occupied by people meeting the City's Santa Monica Program Participant (local ties) definition. Staff say "about" this share, based on current census counts at one shelter; not representative of everyone unsheltered. 2026-07-28 city reported p. 7
34 Rooms at The Palm Motel, proposed as City-controlled stabilization housing (up to 48 occupants) 2026-07-28 city reported p. 10
$4,264,673 FY 2026-27 budget for the Palm Motel, The People Concern and Bell Shelter agreements. Planned amounts in the staff report; excludes SaMoShel, outreach teams and SaMo Bridge. 2026-07-28 city reported p. 14
$9,535,809 Two-year total (FY 2026-27 and FY 2027-28) for the three system-of-care agreements. Future-year funding contingent on budget approval; other sources needed from year three. 2026-07-28 city reported p. 14
72 Households to be proactively engaged by the Predictive Prevention Pilot (from a risk list of 513). Planned reach of a one-year pilot; no results reported yet. 2026-06-09 city reported p. 3
80% Income ceiling for Renter Aid flexible financial assistance 2025-03-11 city reported p. 5
$6 million Maximum Renter Aid contract with The People Concern over five years (Measure GS). Not to exceed; $2.4M for two years plus three optional one-year renewals; future years subject to budget approval. 2026-05-26 city reported p. 1
$2 million Allocation recommended for the Right to Counsel expansion (Measure GS and a one-time state grant). Staff recommendation received by Council 6-0; spending and cases served not found. 2025-03-11 city reported p. 12
277 Very-low and low-income homes counted toward Santa Monica's 6th-cycle target (165 very low plus 112 low). Sum of two HCD columns. Reporting cutoff not stated; whether counts are permits or completed homes is unconfirmed. 2026-09-25 our calculation row SANTA MONICA
4,466 6th-cycle (2021–2029) target for very-low and low-income homes (2,794 plus 1,672) 2026-09-25 our calculation row SANTA MONICA
1,252 Above-moderate-income homes counted toward the 6th-cycle target. Reported by the City to the state; cutoff and permit-versus-completion status unconfirmed. 2026-09-25 city reported row SANTA MONICA
2,727 6th-cycle target for above-moderate-income homes 2026-09-25 city reported row SANTA MONICA
8,895 Santa Monica's full 6th-cycle housing target, October 2021 to October 2029 (sum of four income levels) 2026-09-25 our calculation row SANTA MONICA
115 Affordable homes granted planning entitlements, FY 2024-25 estimated actual. Approvals, not homes built. 2025-06 city reported printed p. 33
996 Market-rate homes granted planning entitlements, FY 2024-25 estimated actual. Approvals, not homes built. 2025-06 city reported printed p. 33
102 On-site affordable units previously required in the six first-round off-site pilot projects 2026-01-13 city reported pp. 5–6
93 Off-site affordable units proposed in their place (plus one in-lieu fee). Planned; construction start not verified. 2026-01-13 city reported pp. 5–6
80% Climate Action and Adaptation Plan goal for 2030. A goal; no progress report or recent emissions inventory was found on Council agendas. 2019-05-28 city reported p. 1
33% Staff estimate of emissions from existing buildings. Staff say "approximately"; inventory year not stated on this page. 2025-09-09 city reported p. 1
762 Existing buildings over 20,000 sq. ft. that the proposed Building Performance Standard would have covered. The ordinance was pulled at staff request and never adopted. 2025-09-09 city reported p. 1

Our reasoning

Only items marked “Our position” are used to judge alignment. Provisional directions guide research; open questions are compared, never scored.

Our position

Help offered should suit the person's circumstances, including disability, relationships, work and care needs.

Why we expect it to help
An offer that fits is more likely to be accepted and kept, so people leave the street and beds are not wasted on placements that fail.
Evidence and its limits
Shelter conditions such as separation from partners or inaccessible rooms are documented reasons for declining help; City staff cite research that private, non-congregate settings support better outcomes (July 28, 2026 report, p. 7). Local data on refusal reasons are not published.
What it depends on
Requires a range of available options and assessment of need before placement.
Who bears the costs
Varied, private settings usually cost more per bed than congregate shelter and take longer to site.
What would change our view
Local evidence that suitability adjustments do not change acceptance or retention, or that they reduce the number of people helped at a given cost.
Our position

Judge homelessness responses by lasting housing outcomes, such as housing retention at 6 and 12 months, not by activity counts or cleared locations alone.

Why we expect it to help
Measuring retention rewards programs that keep people housed instead of moving them or counting referrals.
Evidence and its limits
The City's own Strategic Plan lists reducing returns to homelessness among its measures (p. 11); budget metrics track placements but not retention (FY 2025-27 budget p. 34).
What it depends on
Needs follow-up data, including people lost to contact, and adjustment for differences in need so programs are not rewarded for taking easier cases.
Who bears the costs
Retention data take a year or more to accumulate and cost staff time to collect; short-term visible improvements count for less.
What would change our view
If retention measures prove unreliable locally, or if they push providers away from people with the highest needs despite risk adjustment.
Our position

Give proportionate attention to both safety and agency: address urgent danger and persistent harm, and use compulsory measures only on specific legal grounds with safeguards.

Why we expect it to help
Matching the response to the situation protects the public and the person without treating homelessness itself as grounds for coercion.
Evidence and its limits
State law sets specific criteria for court-ordered care such as CARE; Denver's civilian response evaluation suggests some calls can be handled without police.
What it depends on
Requires trained responders, treatment capacity and somewhere to go after any intervention.
Who bears the costs
Safeguards slow intervention in some cases; voluntary approaches leave some harmful situations unresolved for longer.
What would change our view
Local evidence that a particular threshold for intervention produces better housing and safety outcomes with acceptable harms.
Our position

Compare approaches by full costs and lasting outcomes for people with similar needs, including costs shifted to families, other services and other communities.

Why we expect it to help
Counting all costs keeps a cheap placement that fails from looking better than a costlier one that lasts.
Evidence and its limits
Placement costs vary widely by setting and services; no comprehensive local cost comparison is published.
What it depends on
Requires comparable populations, timeframes and cost boundaries.
Who bears the costs
Full-cost comparisons are slower and depend on data from County and regional partners.
What would change our view
Not applicable as a method; specific comparisons are revised as better cost and outcome data appear.
Our position

Judge prevention and housing delivery by results: households still housed, and completed homes by income level, not payments issued or approvals granted.

Why we expect it to help
Outcome tracking shows whether assistance and housing policy actually keep people housed and open homes they can afford.
Evidence and its limits
State progress data show lower-income production well behind above-moderate production; Renter Aid and the prevention pilot have not yet reported outcomes.
What it depends on
Requires published follow-up for assisted households and completion data by affordability level.
Who bears the costs
Outcome data lag decisions; early judgments rely on design and comparable programs elsewhere.
What would change our view
If a program's outcome data are unavailable or unreliable, we describe the gap rather than substitute an activity count.
Our position

Affordability has to include room for people not yet housed here: more homes, paired with protections for current tenants and subsidy for the lowest incomes. Protecting current renters alone caps affordability at the people who already have a home.

Why we expect it to help
Added homes ease competition for existing ones and create openings for grown children, new workers and growing families; protections keep current tenants housed while new homes take years to arrive; subsidy reaches incomes the market will not.
Evidence and its limits
The value case is settled for us: a city that is welcoming and a place where people can build a life needs ways in. The local effects are not yet measured: completions by income, displacement and price effects here are incomplete, so the mix of tools stays an open, evidence question.
What it depends on
Depends on financing and subsidy for the lowest incomes, on protections that keep current tenants housed during construction, and on approvals turning into finished homes.
Who bears the costs
Construction disruption, denser neighborhoods, pressure on infrastructure, and possible redevelopment of older rent-controlled buildings; current residents bear much of the change while newcomers gain most of the openings.
What would change our view
Evidence that new homes here do not reach or benefit lower-income households, or that displacement of current tenants outweighs the openings created.
Open question

The mix of police, clinicians, outreach workers and civilian teams responding to homelessness-related calls.

Open question

When compulsory intervention, such as court-ordered treatment, is justified, and with what safeguards.

Open question

Whether to house people locally or regionally, judged by the person's circumstances, outcomes and full costs.

Open question

When temporary shelter or interim housing should come first, and when people should move directly into permanent housing.

Open question

The balance among assistance, tenant protections, additional supply, and public or nonprofit ownership.

Evidence still missing

  • 2026 homeless count We show the preliminary 2026 total of everyone counted, but no unsheltered figure or percentage change. Our sources give different unsheltered numbers and we could not confirm the definition behind either.
  • SaMo Bridge results We show no placement rate until dates, units, destinations and retention are reconciled.
  • Shelter replacement The July 28, 2026 votes come from minutes not yet approved. No replacement site, opening date or capacity is known, so those steps appear as gaps.
  • Housing delivery counts State progress counts appear with a caveat: their reporting cutoff, and whether they count permits or finished homes, are unconfirmed.
  • Homelessness spending We show no total for homelessness spending. The budget reports Housing and Human Services only as a whole department.
  • Denver and CARE examples Summarized from the published study and court guidance; their legal scope and study details will be rechecked against primary sources before publication.

How the candidate findings were made

Status: Draft: not yet second-graded and not yet sent to campaigns for reply. As of 2026-10-03.

Scored blind first: statements were coded and stripped of names before scoring, then names were restored and checked against council votes.

Source window: campaign websites archived September 27, 2026, and, for candidates who have served on the council, votes in council minutes. Official ballot statements, questionnaires and forums have not yet been collected for anyone.

Quality is five standards scored 0–3 (Strong 11–15, Adequate 7–10, Thin 3–6). Alignment is High, Medium, Low or Not gradable against the positions above and our three values. See the full rubric.

Back to Housing and homelessness · All research notes and method