PublicReceiptBeta

Santa Monica · Nov 3, 2026 · Research notes

Research notes

Public safety and emergency response

The sources, figures, reasoning and method behind the policy area page. Draft as of 2026-10-02.

Sources

Numbers match the footnote markers on the policy area page.

  1. 2025 Palisades Fire and Windstorm After-Action Report, City Council report, item 11.A. City of Santa Monica, 2026-09-22.
  2. Santa Monica Realignment Plan Update, City Council report, item 11.C. City of Santa Monica, 2026-03-24.
  3. SMPD 2024 Annual Report, City Manager Report presentation. Santa Monica Police Department, 2025-06-10.
  4. FY 2025-27 Adopted Biennial Budget (priority-focused performance metrics; citywide overview). City of Santa Monica, 2025-06-24.
  5. Santa Monica Realignment Plan, City Council report, item 11.A. City of Santa Monica, 2025-10-28.
  6. FY 2026-27 Proposed Budget, City Council budget study session report, item 7.A. City of Santa Monica, 2026-05-26.
  7. City of Santa Monica After-Action Report, Palisades Fire and Windstorm (Attachment A to item 11.A). Jacob Green & Associates for the City of Santa Monica, 2026-09-22.
  8. Approval of Memorandum of Understanding Between the City and the California Coastal Commission on the Local Coastal Program Update, City Council report, item 4.I. City of Santa Monica, 2026-05-26.
  9. Adopt the Final Draft of the Climate Action & Adaptation Plan, City Council report, item 11.B. City of Santa Monica, 2019-05-28.
  10. City Council minutes, May 26, 2026. City of Santa Monica, 2026-05-26.
  11. FY 2025-27 Adopted Biennial Budget Addendum (FY 2026-27), expenditure summaries. City of Santa Monica, 2026-06-24.
  12. Realignment Plan Attachment A: General Fund budget changes. City of Santa Monica, 2025-10-28.
  13. Realignment Plan Update Attachment J: budget changes. City of Santa Monica, 2026-03-24.

Every figure on the policy area page

FigureWhat it countsAs ofBasisSource
0.4 miles Closest approach of the Palisades Fire perimeter to Santa Monica's northern boundary 2025-01 city reported p. 2
12.5% Change in Part I crime, 2025 compared with 2024, as reported in March 2026. Uses a revised 2024 base of 4,793; the June 2025 report gave 4,840. Most of 2025 precedes the full deployment in December 2025. 2025-12 city reported p. 15
4,194 Part I crime, calendar 2025. Described in the report as violent offenses and burglary. 2025-12 city reported p. 15
4,793 Part I crime, calendar 2024, as given in the March 2026 update. Differs from the 4,840 in the June 2025 annual report without explanation. 2024-12 city reported p. 15
4,840 Part I crime, calendar 2024, as given in the June 2025 annual report 2024-12 city reported slide 9
22.9% Change in total arrests, 2025 compared with 2024 (2,804 to 3,446). An activity measure, not a safety outcome. 2025-12 city reported p. 15
102% Change in traffic citations, 2025 compared with 2024 (2,835 to 5,723). An activity measure, not a safety outcome. 2025-12 city reported p. 15
3.1% Change in total police calls for service, 2025 compared with 2024 (128,820 to 124,848) 2025-12 city reported p. 15
12,300 Fire Department emergency medical service responses, FY 2024-25. Estimated actual, prepared before the fiscal year ended. 2025-06 city reported printed p. 35
18,000 Fire Department total emergency responses, FY 2024-25. Estimated actual, prepared before the fiscal year ended. 2025-06 city reported printed p. 35
11.0 minutes Police average response time to Priority 1 calls, FY 2023-24. Clock start not defined in the budget. 2024-06 city reported printed p. 35
6.9 minutes Police average response time to Priority 1 calls, FY 2024-25. Estimated actual; predates the Realignment deployment. No later figure found. 2025-06 city reported printed p. 35
7.0 minutes Police target for average Priority 1 response, FY 2025-26 and FY 2026-27 2025-06 adopted budget printed p. 35
7:52 Time for the first unit to arrive at fire and medical incidents, 90th percentile, FY 2023-24. Labeled 'total response time'; the budget does not define when the clock starts. 2024-06 city reported printed p. 35
7:47 Time for the first unit to arrive at fire and medical incidents, 90th percentile, FY 2024-25. Estimated actual; predates the city ambulance program. No later figure found. 2025-06 city reported printed p. 35
6:00 Fire Department target for first-unit arrival, 90th percentile, FY 2025-26 and FY 2026-27 2025-06 adopted budget printed p. 35
650 Approximate monthly ambulance transports by the Fire Department since the city took over in February 2026 2026-05 city reported p. 15
88% Share of legally fileable SMPD cases on which the City Attorney filed, October to December 2025. Denominator is legally fileable cases; not comparable with the earlier rate based on all submissions. 2025-12 city reported p. 7
65–70% Approximate earlier City Attorney filing rate, based on total submissions. The report says only 'previously'; the period is not stated. Different denominator from the 88% figure. 2025-09 city reported p. 7
5,550 Santa Monica households and businesses under mandatory evacuation orders, Palisades Fire 2025-01 city reported p. 2
1.5 Emergency management staffing when fully staffed, at the time of the Palisades Fire. The review notes the vacant Emergency Services Administrator post has since been filled. 2025-01 independent printed p. 9
36 Improvement recommendations in the Palisades Fire after-action report 2026-09-22 independent p. 3
14 High-priority actions in the November 2025 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan. Five-year implementation target; adoption is not completion. 2025-11 city reported p. 5
$152.9M Police Department General Fund operating budget, FY 2026-27. Whole department, including dispatch and emergency management; the June 23 attachment shows a slightly different figure. 2026-06-23 adopted budget printed p. 11
$545.1M Total General Fund budget, FY 2026-27, including capital. The operating budget alone is $525.2M. 2026-06-23 adopted budget printed p. 11
$68.9M Fire Department General Fund operating budget, FY 2026-27. Includes the city ambulance program. 2026-06-23 adopted budget printed p. 11
$4.0M Realignment Plan additions to the Police General Fund budget, FY 2026-27 (October 2025). Not itemized; already inside the department total. 2025-10-28 adopted budget p. 1
$1.5M March 2026 update additions to the Police General Fund budget, FY 2026-27. Already inside the department total. 2026-03-24 adopted budget p. 1
$4.5M Realignment Plan additions to the Fire General Fund budget, FY 2026-27 (October 2025). Not itemized; already inside the department total. 2025-10-28 adopted budget p. 1
$60M Previously allocated reserves funding the Realignment Plan. Covers the whole plan, not only public safety. 2026-03-24 city reported p. 3
$2.8M Estimated annual operating cost of the city ambulance program. Excludes the six ambulances bought in December 2025. 2025-10-28 forecast p. 23
$3.5M Ambulance billing revenue budgeted for FY 2026-27 in the October 2025 plan 2025-10-28 adopted budget p. 1
$7M Annual ambulance revenue the March 2026 update said the program 'is generating'. An annualized description a month after launch, not reported collections. 2026-03-24 city reported p. 19
$5.5M Ambulance revenue projected for FY 2026-27 in the May 2026 budget report. The report expects an ongoing $7M a year once collections stabilize by the end of FY 2026-27. 2026-05-26 forecast p. 15

Our reasoning

Only items marked “Our position” are used to judge alignment. Provisional directions guide research; open questions are compared, never scored.

Our position

Public safety policy should be judged by whether fewer people are harmed: fewer victims, fewer injuries, less repeat harm, and public spaces people can use with confidence.

Why we expect it to help
Holding proposals to harm outcomes, rather than activity, directs resources toward what changes people's lives and away from measures that only show effort.
Evidence and its limits
City reporting after the 2025 deployment consists of activity counts (stops, citations, arrests); the annual Part I decline largely precedes the deployment and rests on a revised baseline.
What it depends on
Requires outcome measures by offense type and neighborhood, published on a consistent method.
Who bears the costs
Outcome measures take longer to show change than activity counts, and residents' sense of safety can diverge from recorded crime; both are legitimate and must be read together.
What would change our view
If consistent outcome data proved unobtainable locally, we would weigh validated proxies more heavily and say so.
Our position

People should get help suited to the situation, reliably and in time, both on an ordinary day and when a disaster overwhelms routine.

Why we expect it to help
Matching responder skills to call type, and keeping plans practiced and current, shortens the time to effective help and frees scarce responders for the calls only they can handle.
Evidence and its limits
The latest published fire and medical measure (an FY 2024-25 estimate) was slower than its own target, while the police average was within its target; the after-action review found strengths alongside gaps in emergency management staffing and evacuation planning.
What it depends on
Depends on documented response measures, dispatch rules, trained coverage and exercised plans.
Who bears the costs
Faster coverage in one area or for one call type can draw capacity from others; readiness work competes with daily operations for the same staff.
What would change our view
If newer data showed targets consistently met, or showed a given responder type performing better or worse than expected, we would revise how we weigh staffing and responder-mix proposals.
Our position

Everyone involved, including people harmed and people subject to police action, should be treated with dignity, with their rights and agency respected.

Why we expect it to help
Fair treatment and safeguards support public trust, cooperation with investigations and willingness to call for help, and reduce harms caused by the response itself.
Evidence and its limits
This is a value commitment from our editorial purpose; local data on enforcement harms and complaints was not part of the reviewed record.
What it depends on
Applies equally to enforcement, diversion and alternative-response proposals.
Who bears the costs
Safeguards can add time and cost to enforcement; some urgent situations limit how much choice a person can be given.
What would change our view
This commitment is a value and does not change with evidence; how it applies to specific practices does, and we would revisit those applications with new evidence on harms or benefits.
Our position

Safety and emergency proposals should be compared by their full recurring and start-up costs and their added benefit, counting each dollar once.

Why we expect it to help
Full-cost comparison reveals which option buys the most harm reduction or reliability for the money, and which recurring commitments lack funding once reserves are used.
Evidence and its limits
Realignment additions to Police and Fire sit inside department totals and were started partly with reserves; ambulance revenue has been described three ways with no published collections or full costs.
What it depends on
Requires incremental program costs and comparable outcomes, which are not yet published for most options.
Who bears the costs
Strict cost comparison can undervalue benefits that are hard to price, such as trust or readiness for rare events.
What would change our view
If credible comparable costs and outcomes became available, we would replace qualitative comparisons with them.
Our position

Safety policy should be measured by outcomes, reported publicly on a consistent method, and adjusted when results warrant.

Why we expect it to help
Regular outcome reporting with a rule for adjustment lets the city keep what works and change what does not, instead of locking in a program by default.
Evidence and its limits
The council directed a public scorecard in December 2025; post-deployment crime, response-time and resident-survey results had not appeared in council documents through September 2026. Publishing arrests alone does not meet this standard.
What it depends on
Measures must describe outcomes, not only activity, and must keep definitions stable or explain revisions.
Who bears the costs
Reporting has staff costs, and short-term results can be noisy enough to prompt premature changes.
What would change our view
If outcome reporting proved too noisy to guide decisions at city scale, we would favor longer reporting periods or pooled measures.
Provisional direction

Direction to develop: match police, fire and medical, non-sworn and specialized responders to call types, judged by local call data and outcomes. No preferred mix is settled.

Provisional direction

Direction to develop: judge staffing and response capacity against each service's own target, trained coverage and recurring funding, not authorized positions alone. No preferred staffing level is settled.

Provisional direction

Direction to develop: compare prevention, enforcement and diversion by safety outcomes, authority, costs and harms. No preferred enforcement strategy is settled.

Provisional direction

Direction to develop: allocate safety and readiness funding by incremental cost and outcome rather than department totals. No preferred allocation is settled.

Open question

Whether the airport site should keep an emergency or firefighting role after aircraft operations are planned to end in 2028. No city analysis of that role was found.

Open question

How much roadway capacity evacuation requires, and how that weighs against other street uses. The review's recommended evacuation traffic modeling has not been done.

Evidence still missing

  • Crime trends: the revised 2024 baseline and comparable post-deployment counts We show no crime trend chart and make no claim about the deployment's effect until the city explains the revision and publishes comparable results.
  • Response reliability: newer actuals, clock definitions and neighborhood results We show only the latest published figures (FY 2024-25 estimates), each against its own target, and make no claim about current service or the ambulance takeover's effect.
  • Deployment and authority: trained coverage, the Downtown substation and the Metro agreement We describe authorized and announced staffing, not delivered coverage, and treat the Metro agreement as unconfirmed.
  • Follow-through: filing denominators, diversion outcomes and repeat harm We show the two filing rates with their different bases and no trend; diversion outcomes are listed as missing.
  • Readiness: council direction, owners, funding and completion of after-action improvements The September 22, 2026 council action is unconfirmed, and the register shows no improvement as complete until a document shows it.
  • Costs: ambulance collections and full costs; recurring funding for service levels We set the ambulance revenue descriptions side by side and make no savings claim.

How the candidate findings were made

Status: Draft: not yet second-graded and not yet sent to campaigns for reply. As of 2026-10-02.

Scored blind first: statements were coded and stripped of names before scoring, then names were restored and checked against council votes.

Source window: campaign websites archived September 27, 2026, and, for candidates who have served on the council, votes in council minutes. Official ballot statements, questionnaires and forums have not yet been collected for anyone.

Quality is five standards scored 0–3 (Strong 11–15, Adequate 7–10, Thin 3–6). Alignment is High, Medium, Low or Not gradable against the positions above and our three values. See the full rubric.

Back to Public safety and emergency response · All research notes and method